What companies are worth
I’m Lucian Mesaroș. I value companies — mostly ones nobody else covers — and I publish the number next to the share price, along with the assumptions it came out of and the model that produced it.
I do this with my own money in the market, and every valuation says whether I own the shares.
I never tell you to buy anything. I don’t have a view on where a share price goes next week, and I’m not licensed to advise you. What I have is an estimate of what a business is worth, an argument for it, and a spreadsheet you can disagree with.
Why this is different from most of what you’ll find
Most valuation content gives you a conclusion. The conclusion is the least interesting part — it’s the assumptions that do all the work, and they’re usually the part left out.
So: the assumptions are on the free page, every time. The growth rate, the margin the business ends up at, what it costs to get there, the cost of capital, and what the answer becomes if I’m wrong about the two that matter most. If you think my growth number is fantasy, you can see it, and you’ll know exactly which cell to argue with.
How I work
Discounted cash flow, in Damodaran’s framework, in my own spreadsheet. I forecast ten years of cash flows, discount them at a rate that reflects the risk, and divide by the share count. Growth has to be paid for out of reinvestment, and nothing grows faster than the economy forever.
The companies I look at are mostly small and mid-cap — the ones with no analyst coverage, no credit rating, and no one else making a video about them. That’s where the work is worth doing.
The full method is on methodology.
What’s here
- Valuations — every company I’ve valued, with my estimate against the price on the day
- Everything I’ve published — the full list, including the ones that didn’t work out
- What I own — my positions, sold ones included
- Disclosure — who I am, what I’m not, and how I trade around what I publish
Elsewhere
YouTube: @lucianmesaros
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Get in touch
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